Canada Energy Policy Simulator
Page last updated: June 2023
The Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) is a free and open-source computer model originally created by Energy Innovation LLC and adapted for Canada in partnership with the Pembina Institute.
Model Download
The Canada Energy Policy Simulator may be used on this website through your web browser, or the full version may be downloaded to your computer by clicking the button below. Note that you will need to go through the steps explained on the EPS download page in order to install the required software and make use of the downloadable version of the model.
Download the Canada Energy Policy Simulator
Business As Usual (BAU) – Baseline
Overarching Assumptions
The BAU scenario only includes policies fully developed and legislated into law by the end of 2021. Any announced, developing, or developed but not legislated policies were not included in the BAU, but will be reflected in incremental policy scenarios
The model assumes policies in Canada are applied nationally.
The full carbon price (e.g. increasing by $15 per year starting in 2023 until reaching $170/tonne in 2030) is applied to the transportation and buildings sector, but not in other sectors, where the carbon price was left at zero. This is because carbon pricing for the other sectors includes free allocations, and is applied differently across different provinces.
- The user can change the national “simplified carbon price” lever to apply an additional carbon price (beyond the initial assumption) to any sector. For example, adding a $10 carbon price in the buildings and transportation sectors yields a carbon price of $180/tonne, whereas applying $10 in the industry sector will only apply $10/tonne for the entire sector. See policy description for more details.
Projections to the year 2050 were based on sources that use legislated policies at the end of 2021.
Existing legislated policies were assumed to remain unchanged between 2030 and 2050 (e.g. Clean Fuel Regulations, carbon tax).
Where variable-specific forecasts were unavailable, forecasts for related variables were used as proxies to model change in future years. For data with gaps between years, we linearly interpolated between datapoints and held it constant beyond the final datapoint.
Reporting structures vary significantly between sources, so when data was taken from different sources, mappings would need to be done to see how the data most accurately translated to our model. As such, sector, file, and variable-specific data may not match up exactly with other sources.
Canada Energy Futures 2021 was used as a primary input for forecasts to 2050 unless a more detailed dataset exists.
Where provincial data showed significant variations, a weighted average was used to represent values for Canada.
The model BAU inputs were completed using data from Canada, except where Canadian data does not exist in the public domain. In these cases, U.S. data was used, as it is expected to be similar to Canadian data.
Emissions results for years 2019-2021 were matched with Canada’s National Inventory Report (NIR-2021) on a sector-by-sector basis.
Key Data Sources
Canada Energy Regulator
Natural Resources Canada
Stats Canada
Transport Canada
Environment and Climate Change Canada
U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Sector Assumptions
Sector | Assumption |
---|---|
Buildings |
|
Carbon Capture and Storage |
|
District Heat |
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Electricity |
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Fuels |
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Direct Air Capture |
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Hydrogen |
|
Industry |
|
Land |
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Transportation |
|
Illustrative Scenarios
Two scenarios are included with the simulator as an example of policy packages.
“Path to 2030” scenario models a combination of policies that shows Canada achieving its 2030 goal. This includes an approximation of many policies in the Federal 2030 Emission Reduction Plan (ERP), but is not limited to only the policies in the ERP.
“Path to 2050”
scenario builds upon the Path to 2030 scenario by increasing ambition of the policies implemented from Canada’s ERP2030 plan by either increasing the magnitude of change created, accelerating the proposed implementation schedule, or extending the policy trend to the year 2050.
For a more detailed explanation of these scenarios, and answers to other common questions, please email policysolutions@pembina.org.
Acknowledgement of Contributors and Reviewers
We would like to acknowledge the following people who helped adapt the Energy Policy Simulator for Canada. Individuals are listed alphabetically.
Andre Dixon, Pembina Institute
Eyab Al-Aini, Pembina Institute
Jared Connoy, Pembina Institute
Jason Lam, Pembina Institute
Olivia Ashmoore, Energy Innovation LLC
Robbie Orvis, Energy Innovation LLC
Version History
3.4.7.1 – November 17, 2023
- Updates to example scenarios to align more closely with Canada’s climate targets
3.4.7 – June 12, 2023
- Updated model platform to 3.4.7 from 1.4.3
1.4.3 – June 26, 2019
- Updated core files to 1.4.3
- Updated Canada data for compatibility with 1.4.3
- Various other Canada data updates
- Updated scenarios, added youth policy design contest winner's scenario
1.4.2 – January 29, 2019
- Updated core files to 1.4.2
- Updated Canada input data for compatibility with 1.4.2
- Updated scenarios
1.3.2 – March 26, 2018
- Initial public release
Software License
The Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) is released under the GNU General Public License version 3 (GPLv3) or any later version and is free and open-source software. Refer to the Software License page for full details.
Image Credits
Ottawa Parliament at Night
Doug Tanner
https://www.flickr.com/photos/dougtanner/12688950314/
License: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Changes: Image has been cropped and a fade has been applied to the left side.